A tidal wave of unsold properties is threatening to crash over the housing market this winter, potentially causing a washout of prices.
The wave has been building for several months as the number of properties being listed for sale has remained relatively constant but the number being sold has fallen dramatically.
Unfortunately the wave does not appear on the Real Estate Institute’s radar because it only picks up information on sales and prices. It does not measure the number of listings on the market.
A better overall picture can be gleaned from the figures of the individual real estate companies.
The most comprehensive market information each month comes from Harcourts, which gives a regional breakdown of listings as well as sales.
Last month Harcourts added 3013 exclusive listings to its books, slightly up on the 2857 properties it listed in March last year.
But last month it sold only 1865 properties, a 32% decline on the 2754 it sold in March last year.
In March last year Harcourts had 10,661 properties listed for sale. In March this year the figure had increased to 13,823.
That means a year ago the company made one sale for every 3.9 properties it had on its books. Twelve months on, the ratio was one sale for every 7.4 listings.
Harcourts is not alone.
Ray White’s March sales declined by 50% compared with a year ago, while the number of listings on its books increased by 62%.
And Barfoot & Thompson, which handles about a third of all residential property sales in the Auckland market, reported that its March sales declined by 56% compared with a year ago, while the number of listings on its books increased from 4817 in March last year to 7379 in March this year.
That means…
